Golf betting: 2024 RBC Heritage best bets and expert picks

Patrick Cantlay -115 Over Matt Fitzpatrick (Caesars)

By Spencer Aguiar

This is one of those rare situations where I am backing a golfer versus the full-fade answer.

That isn't to say that Matthew Fitzpatrick has a perfect profile since my model believes his love affair for Harbour Town has been too heavily baked into the price. However, as much as I liked Fitzpatrick at Augusta National, concerns with his iron play caused me to be less than optimistic about his chances here this week.

My math had the Englishman ranked 54th for Projected Proximity because of those problems with the current state of his short irons when diving into them not even being calibrated correctly for Augusta. Fitzpatrick noted that a few of his short irons per round at the Masters were not spinning as much as he had anticipated, which led to him missing long on shots with a scoring club in his hands.

While it would be a naive statement to ignore the potential that Fitzpatrick possesses after landing a victory, fourth and 14th over the past four years at Harbour Town, Patrick Cantlay has that same intrigue within his course-history profile, but he does it with a much better statistical fit for the course.

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Keegan Bradley Top 20 +240 (FanDuel)

By Matt Gannon

Keegan Bradley gained more strokes on Approach at the Masters, with 1.44 Strokes Gained on Approach per round via DataGolf, than he has at any tournament since last May at TPC River Highlands. He is a golfer who relies on precision, specifically with his irons, to find success, and that is exactly what Harbour Town demands.

His last win came at the 2023 Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. That is another golf course which requires precision, and it was also a week after a major championship. Bradley's best finish this season was at the Sony Open in Hawaii early in 2024, which was held on a short, Bermuda grass golf course, which is very similar to Harbour Town.

The stars are aligning for Bradley to get in the mix this week, and finishing in the top 20 should be no problem.

Lucas Glover Top 10 +850 (bet365)

By Tony Sartori

Glover to finish in the top 10 at +850 is the most mispriced bet on the board this week. The reason this number is so long is because he has not finished in the top 10 yet this season, but the ceiling is certainly there for Glover.

He got hot at the end of last season with back-to-back wins at the Wyndham Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championship. The latter was against as stacked of a field as he will face this week with it coming in the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs, so I am not worried about the stiff competition this week.

Additionally, Glover has been a ball-striking machine despite his relatively underwhelming results this season as he has gained strokes on Approach in each of his past eight tournaments. He has made the weekend in seven of those eight outings and has finished in the top 25 in each of his past three, including a tie for 20th at the Masters, which played significantly tougher than this week’s venue.

RBC Heritage Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Aguiar: Xander Schauffle +1300
• Gannon: Xander Schauffle +1300
• Sartori: Wyndham Clark +3300

Mid-Tier Golfer to Back

• Aguiar: Russell Henley +3500
• Gannon: Sam Burns +5500
• Sartori: Corey Conners +5500

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Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Keegan Bradley +9000
• Gannon: Keegan Bradley +9000
• Sartori: Denny McCarthy +8000

Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Jordan Spieth +3200
• Gannon: Scottie Scheffler +410
• Sartori: Patrick Cantlay +1500

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Chris Kirk +6000
• Gannon: Byeong Hun An +7500
• Sartori: Nick Taylor 120-1

Your Betting Strategy for the 2024 RBC Heritage

Aguiar: Harbour Town is a course that is tight off the tee, with tree-lined fairways that forge a less-than-driver appeal because of the forced layups throughout.

That derives the difference-making answer since the field experiences nearly an 11% uptick when diving into second shots between 125-200 yards versus Tour average and just under a 9% reduction in anticipated approaches from over 200 yards.

That distribution renders a unique split since it minimizes distance when most holes possess a club-down option as the optimal route and enhances mid-iron play for those who often find themselves beaten by the elite players in the world with distance when comparing that facet of their games.

Gannon: Precision off the tee and precision into the greens is the name of the game around Harbour Town. These fairways are not necessarily the narrowest we see on Tour, but positioning in these fairways does matter. Massive trees droop over the edges of fairways to block out aiming points to the green. These trees are strategically placed and really demand golfers to be in control of their golf ball rather than try and bomb it off the tee.

Another key that correlates to success is prior history on "club-down” golf courses. Tracks such as Pebble Beach and Colonial demand similar precision from tee to green and have some crossover in leaderboards.

Sartori: Harbour Town Golf Links is a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus design that features tight fairways and among the smallest greens on Tour. It is a ball-striker's course through and through, and golf will be rewarded for gaining strokes against the field on approach as hitting these small greens will be a major advantage.

Looking at last year’s leaderboard, three of the top-four finishers here ranked seventh or higher among the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. That is the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.

Previous experience will also help this week at Hilton Head, with each of the past five winners making at least two previous cuts here and possessing at least one top-23 finish.