Keith Mitchell (left) and Denny McCarthy (right). USA TODAY Sports photos

Golf best bets: 2 long shots to target at the PGA Championship

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 5/14/24

We enjoyed a profitable week with our long-shot picks at the Wells Fargo Championship, cashing in on Seamus Power to finish in the top 30 (+180) and the top 20 (+360). Now we move on to the PGA Championship, the second major of the year and normally the friendliest major to long shots.

Here are the two high-priced players we're targeting with outright and finishing position bets at Valhalla Golf Club.

Denny McCarthy (+12000 FanDuel)

If you follow along with our golf betting coverage this week, you'll notice a popular theme throughout. Valhalla is a long, 7,600-yard golf course with small greens, so we're emphasizing driving distance and long-iron play in our handicapping. Denny McCarthy doesn't fit that mold, but he's by far our favorite short hitter in the field this week.

What McCarthy lacks in distance he makes up for with his short game. The American ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained from putting, and he's gained strokes on the green in all eight of his major championship starts dating back to 2020. McCarthy should have a field day with the flatstick on these pure, bentgrass greens at Valhalla.

These greens are very similar to the ones at Muirfield Village, another Jack Nicklaus design with a similar layout. Well, McCarthy finished T5 and solo second in his last two starts at the Memorial Tournament, and he led the field in putting by a wide margin last year.

Top-20 finish: +280
Top-40 finish: +115

Keith Mitchell (+17000 FD)

OK, back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Keith Mitchell is the prototypical bomber and ball striker we're looking for this week. He ranks sixth on Tour this season in strokes gained from off the tee, 28th in driving distance, ninth in greens in regulation percentage and 11th in approaches from 200+ yards. As one of the best drivers and long-iron players in the world right now, Mitchell is the perfect fit for Valhalla.

The 32-year-old also coming in with good form, as he's finished T19 or better in six of his last eight stroke-play starts. As long as he doesn't putt himself out of the tournament, Mitchell could score the best major championship finish of his career this week.

Top-20 finish: +400
Top-40 finish: +165

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